Market Crash Risk Dashboard
How close is the US stock market to a crash? As of Oct 12, 2026, 2 of 3 crash indicators are negative, a crash-risk score of 67.0%. And 2 of 3 growth indicators are favorable. That puts the market in a “NEUTRAL MARKET” regime. Six public indicators, scored against fixed thresholds, updated every hour.
- Growth Positive: Growth Probability > 50% and Crash Risk ≤ 50%
- Neutral Market · current: Mixed signals, or both scores ≤ 50%
- Crash Risky: Crash Risk > 50% and Growth Probability ≤ 50%
What changed
Each line names its own basis — seven days back for the daily-priced indicators, the most recent completed month for the two monthly series. How the scoring works
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Risks
The scores above watch the US economy from inside. This section watches what hits it from outside: energy chokepoints, shipping lanes, geopolitics and trade policy. These shocks reach stocks through oil, inflation and interest rates.
Oil Shock
A fifth of the world's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb. Daily tanker transits from IMF satellite data, against each strait's pre-disruption baseline, alongside the Brent price.
AI Debt
Not all of the AI build-out is paid for in cash. Capex and long-term debt for the biggest builders from their own SEC filings, ranked by debt-to-capex, alongside the CCC-minus-AAA credit spread.
Private Credit
Private loans have no market price, but the listed funds that hold them do. The largest BDCs' share prices against the NAV they report to the SEC, ranked by discount, alongside the high-yield credit spread.
Treasury Dump
Japan is the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries — and those holdings are the ammunition for defending the yen. Monthly TIC holdings against their own peak, alongside the yen and the 10-year yield, with the market-value caveat stated.
Debt Spiral
Interest on the US debt is consuming a rising share of all federal spending, climbing back toward the 1991 record. The quarterly BEA series back to 1947, and the 30-year yield that sets the next decades of interest costs.
Live Indicators
Market capitalization to GDP ratio. Warren Buffett's preferred valuation metric for the overall stock market.
US Treasury yield curve spread (10Y-2Y). Negative values indicate inversion, often predicting recession.
Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE). Measures stock market valuation relative to 10-year average earnings. High values indicate overvaluation.
Measures the value of the US dollar against a basket of major currencies. For growth analysis, lower DXY change indicates better conditions for market growth.
Total money supply in circulation including cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near money. Rapid growth can indicate inflationary pressure.
10-Year Treasury yield minus inflation rate. Negative values indicate favorable conditions for market growth.
Daily Stock Screeners
The same market, one company at a time: which S&P 500 stocks sit at their highs or lows, are oversold, trade under 15 times earnings or below book value today.
Below 200-Week MA
169 / 495Constituents whose latest weekly close sits under the simple average of the last 200 weekly closes.
FMC LULU CHTR ENPH …
Down 50% From 5-Year High
70 / 495Constituents trading at half or less of their highest weekly close of the last five years.
FMC ENPH CHTR EPAM …
Near 52-Week Low
57 / 495Constituents whose latest weekly close sits within 5% of their lowest weekly low of the past year.
HRL MGM MOS TMUS …
10-Year High Dividend Yield
1 / 495Dividend payers whose current yield is the highest reading of their own ten-year history.
HRL
Below Book Value
15 / 495Constituents whose share price sits under the accounting value of their net assets.
ARE MOS FMC TAP …
Near 52-Week High
15 / 495Constituents whose latest close sits within 2% of their highest weekly high of the past year.
MRNA FTNT HPE PLTR …
Oversold: RSI Under 30
14 / 495Constituents whose 14-week relative strength index has fallen under 30 after a run of weekly losses.
PNR ROL LVS MGM …
P/E Under 15
91 / 495Profitable constituents priced at less than 15 times their trailing twelve-month earnings.
CHTR BBWI ALL FIS …
Market News
Latest headlines from major financial outlets, refreshed every 15 minutes.
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How the Risk Score Works
How This Market Crash Risk Score Works
The dashboard tracks six indicators that have moved before major market drawdowns. Each one is scored against a published threshold that is fixed in advance and applied the same way every day. The results become two numbers: crash risk and growth probability.
Three indicators measure how expensive and how stressed the market already is. Three measure whether money conditions feed the market or starve it. Each scores as positive, warning or negative. The share of negative readings is the percentage shown above.
One rule combines them. Growth probability above 50% with crash risk at or below 50% reads as Growth Positive. Crash risk above 50% with growth probability at or below 50% reads as Crash Risky. Everything else reads as Neutral Market.
The Three Crash Indicators
Total US market capitalization divided by GDP. Warren Buffett called it "probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment." Above 120% is a warning here, above 150% is negative. It reached about 140% at the dot-com peak and has stayed well above that through the 2020s.
The spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields, from the Federal Reserve series T10Y2Y. When short-term debt pays more than long-term debt, the curve is inverted. A spread under 0.2% is a warning, under -0.3% is negative. An inversion came before every US recession since 1950, but the lag ran from six to twenty-four months.
Price divided by ten years of inflation-adjusted earnings. Robert Shiller built it to remove the noise in any single year of profits. Above 25 is a warning, above 35 is negative. Before this decade, CAPE passed 35 only in 1929 and 1999.
The Three Growth Indicators
The dollar against a basket of major currencies. A stronger dollar pulls money out of risk assets and squeezes emerging markets and commodities. A weaker dollar does the opposite. The dashboard reads the three-month change, so a rise above 1% counts against growth.
Cash, deposits and near-money in circulation, from the Federal Reserve series M2SL. Money feeds asset prices, so a contraction is a headwind. Fast expansion above 10-15% over three months brings inflation. Both extremes score badly here.
The 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities yield: the return left after inflation. Deeply negative real rates push savers into stocks. High positive real rates give them a reason to leave. Below 1% is a warning, below -1% is negative.
How to Read It Without Fooling Yourself
These are valuation gauges, not timing signals. The Buffett Indicator and CAPE both stayed expensive for years while markets kept rising. A high reading means future returns start from a worse price and the market has less cushion when something breaks. It does not say when.
The yield curve is the closest thing here to a leading signal, and even it ran six to twenty-four months ahead of past recessions. Read the crash-risk percentage as a count of how much is flashing at once. One negative indicator is noise. Two is worth reading. Three at once, with growth conditions tightening, is the setup that came before past large drawdowns.
Open any indicator for its three-year chart and the exact thresholds behind its status. Every series comes from the Federal Reserve Economic Data service or from live market pricing.
Explore the Data
What could crash the market — shocks from outside the US economy, tracked live
The three valuation and stress gauges behind the crash-risk score
Dollar strength, money supply and real rates behind the growth score
Is a recession coming? The live combined risk assessment
When did the market last look like this — and what followed
Every formula, data source and threshold, stated openly
Every data correction, dated and published