Market Crash Risk Dashboard
How close is the US stock market to a crash? This page answers that with data, not opinion. As of Aug 28, 2026, 2 of 3 crash indicators are negative — a composite crash-risk score of 67.0% — and 2 of 3 growth indicators are favorable, putting the market in a “NEUTRAL MARKET” regime. These public indicators are the gauges that flashed before the worst markets of the modern era, scored here against fixed thresholds every hour — so you see the setup before the headline, not after.
Growth Probability > 50% and Crash Risk ≤ 50%
Mixed signals, or both scores ≤ 50%
Crash Risk > 50% and Growth Probability ≤ 50%
Risks
The scores above watch the inside of the US economy. This axis watches what hits it from outside — energy chokepoints, shipping lanes, geopolitics, trade policy. These shocks don't wait for the domestic data; they reprice stocks through oil, inflation and the rate path.
Oil Shock
A fifth of the world's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb. Daily tanker transits from IMF satellite data, against each strait's pre-disruption baseline, alongside the Brent price.
AI Debt
Not all of the AI build-out is paid for in cash. Capex and long-term debt for the biggest builders from their own SEC filings, ranked by debt-to-capex, alongside the CCC-minus-AAA credit spread.
Treasury Dump
Japan is the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries — and those holdings are the ammunition for defending the yen. Monthly TIC holdings against their own peak, alongside the yen and the 10-year yield, with the market-value caveat stated.
Debt Spiral
Interest on the US debt is consuming a rising share of all federal spending, climbing back toward the 1991 record. The quarterly BEA series back to 1947, and the 30-year yield that sets the next decades of interest costs.
What changed
Each line names its own basis — seven days back for the daily-priced indicators, the most recent completed month for the two monthly series. How the scoring works
Live Indicators
Market capitalization to GDP ratio. Warren Buffett's preferred valuation metric for the overall stock market.
US Treasury yield curve spread (10Y-2Y). Negative values indicate inversion, often predicting recession.
Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE). Measures stock market valuation relative to 10-year average earnings. High values indicate overvaluation.
Measures the value of the US dollar against a basket of major currencies. For growth analysis, lower DXY change indicates better conditions for market growth.
Total money supply in circulation including cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near money. Rapid growth can indicate inflationary pressure.
10-Year Treasury yield minus inflation rate. Negative values indicate favorable conditions for market growth.
Market News
Latest headlines from major financial outlets, refreshed every 15 minutes.
Loading latest market news...
How the Risk Score Works
How This Market Crash Risk Score Works
Most people find out a market has turned after their portfolio has already told them. This dashboard exists so the numbers reach you first. It tracks six indicators with a documented record of moving before major drawdowns, scores each one against fixed published thresholds, and rolls them into two figures you can read in a second: crash risk and growth probability.
Nothing here is smoothed, back-fitted or hand-tuned after the fact. Every threshold below is fixed in advance and applied the same way every day. Three indicators measure how expensive and how stressed the market already is. Three measure whether monetary conditions are feeding the market or starving it. Each scores as positive, warning or negative, and the share of negative readings becomes the percentage on the dashboard above.
The combined verdict follows one rule. Growth probability above 50% with crash risk at or below 50% reads as Growth Positive. Crash risk above 50% with growth probability at or below 50% reads as Crash Risky. Anything else — mixed signals, or both sides quiet — reads as Neutral Market. That is the entire model, stated openly, so you can disagree with it on the merits instead of trusting a black box.
The Three Crash Indicators
Total US market capitalization divided by GDP. Warren Buffett called it "probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment." Anything above 120% counts as a warning here, and above 150% counts as negative. The metric spent the dot-com peak near 140% and has spent the 2020s far above it, which is exactly why it is the first number on this dashboard.
The spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields, straight from the Federal Reserve series T10Y2Y. When short-term debt pays more than long-term debt, the curve is inverted and the bond market is pricing in trouble. A spread under 0.2% is a warning, under -0.3% is negative. Every US recession since 1950 was preceded by an inversion — though the lag has run anywhere from six to twenty-four months.
Price divided by ten years of inflation-adjusted earnings, the metric Nobel laureate Robert Shiller built to strip out the boom-and-bust noise in a single year of profits. Above 25 is a warning, above 35 is negative. The only two times CAPE cleared 35 before this decade were 1929 and 1999, and neither ended quietly.
The Three Growth Indicators
The dollar against a basket of major currencies. A strengthening dollar drains liquidity out of risk assets and squeezes emerging markets and commodities; a weakening dollar does the opposite. This dashboard reads the three-month change, so a rise above 1% counts against growth.
Cash, deposits and near-money in circulation, from the Federal Reserve series M2SL. Liquidity is what feeds asset prices, so contraction is a genuine headwind — but runaway expansion above 10-15% over three months brings inflation with it. Both extremes are punished here.
The 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities yield — the return you actually keep after inflation. Deeply negative real rates push savers into stocks; high positive real rates give them a reason to leave. Below 1% is a warning, below -1% is negative.
How to Read It Without Fooling Yourself
These indicators are valuation and condition gauges, not timing signals. The Buffett Indicator and CAPE have both sat in expensive territory for years at a stretch while markets kept climbing, and anyone who sold on the first warning missed a great deal of it. What an elevated reading actually tells you is that future returns are starting from a worse price and that the market has less cushion when something breaks. That is a statement about risk, not about next Tuesday.
The yield curve is the closest thing here to a genuine leading signal, and even it has run a lag of six to twenty-four months between inversion and recession. Treat the crash risk percentage as a measure of how much of the system is flashing at once. One negative indicator is noise. Two is worth reading about. Three at the same time, with growth conditions tightening underneath, is the configuration that has preceded the drawdowns people still talk about.
Check the dashboard above for today's reading, then open any indicator for its full three-year chart and the exact thresholds behind its status. Every series comes from the Federal Reserve Economic Data service or live market pricing, refreshed automatically, and nothing on this site costs anything.
Get the weekly composite move by email
The same “what changed” lines you see above, sent once a week — the crash-risk and growth scores, their week-over-week change, and where all six indicators stood.
At most one email a week, and only in weeks something actually moved. No account, one click to unsubscribe, and the address is never shared.
Explore the Data
What could crash the market — shocks from outside the US economy, tracked live
The three valuation and stress gauges behind the crash-risk score
Dollar strength, money supply and real rates behind the growth score
Is a recession coming? The live combined risk assessment
When did the market last look like this — and what followed
Every formula, data source and threshold, stated openly
Every data correction, dated and published